Strategic forecasting in support of proactive engagement Responding to Essay

Strategic forecasting in support of proactive engagement Responding to uncertainty in Somalia - Essay Example Much as the western civilization is so prolific in the accumulation of economic prowess it no doubt that the civilization is condemned by itself. Crisis prevention, conflict transformation and peace-building should be at the centre stage in Somalia. The world at large should come out clear to fight this crisis. Restoration of sanity in Somalia should borrow a leaflet from post-conflict countries, where all warring factions. To this end, it is taken into account, for instance, that all population groups must have equal access to inputs, and every effort is made to ensure that the weaker party to the conflict is not disadvantaged. The need for a comprehensive strategy is needed with all the urgency. War is simply a disease of the body politics; a pathological condition which can be traced to abnormalities in the social or economic structures or to the racial characteristics of particular peoples. Historians on the other hand do not discuss war from the aspect of good or evil normality or abnormality, health or disease. For them it is simply the use of violence by states for enforcement, the protection or extension of their political power. War in Somalia has left an estimated 400,000 Somali's displaced since the (IFG) backed by the Ethiopian army entered Mogadishu last December to eject Islamic courts union (ICU) The UNHCR estimate 124,000 people have fled Mogadishu since Feb. 2004 while 73,000 are reported to have left capital Mogadishu. 1.2 Definition of the Anomaly. Conflicts in Africa date back to 1884 when the continent was balkanized into colonies by European powers. The state, in trying to assist to bring order amid disorder, merely adds another dimension to the conflict. External actors to a conflict should be identified and brought to participate in the conflict resolution. The mind must be decolonized so that conflict resolution and peace building and dialogue can be regionalized and, where appropriate globalize. Early warning responding units involving CSO, up to the community level, should be in a position to soften the edges between groups. This includes suggesting other ways of resolving issues that recourse to arms. There is need to study the countries success stories. In cases where there is internalization of conflict international actors are quick to respond to bring peace to the area. Consideration, therefore ought to be given to the internationalization of peace building process. The presence of the UN force and the Ethiopian military occupation is a reflection of a political hostility. However, this is to be blamed on external forces reverberating waves of fear in the Nation of Somalia, consequently, it is futile to try to regulate or reduce military forces separately from their underlying political issues. Basically hostility should be resolved, through the reduction in arms. This will bring sanity and a sense of security among residents. To attempt control of military forces before removing the political sources of friction or threat is to put the cart before the horse. 1.3 Rationale. The basic point should be stressed again no arms-control plaint will remain effective and dependable unless it continues to serve the national interest of Somalia and its warring factions as its leaders conceive those interest. In reaching their judgments they would however appraise the alternatives. The main function of inspection and of remedies available to the other parties is to make